10/14/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Sprint Cup Series runs the only short-track event in the 10-race "Chase for the Sprint Cup," just two races remain to decide this year's World Championship in Formula One.
NASCAR
Sprint Cup Series
Tums QuikPak 500 - Martinsville Speedway - Martinsville, VA
The 2008 "Chase for the Sprint Cup" reached the halfway point with Jeff Burton picking up the victory in last Saturday night's Bank of America 500 at the Lowe's Motor Speedway. Burton jumped from fourth to second in the championship standings and trimmed Jimmie Johnson's lead to 69 points.
Johnson led the most laps at Lowe's with 67, but struggled in the closing stages to finish sixth.
The remaining five races begins with the only short-track event in the Chase, the Tums QuikPak 500 at the half-mile Martinsville Speedway.
And Johnson returns to the track where he has excelled during his Cup career.
While Lowe's has been labeled as "Jimmie's House," Martinsville might as well be known as his second house since he has won three of the last four races there.
"I feel good about Martinsville," Johnson said. "I think we'll be real good over there. It's been a great track to us. I'm excited to go there. Hopefully we can take advantage of going to a good track."
Johnson finished 35th in his first start at Martinsville in April 2002, but has recorded 12 straight top-10 finishes there since then. He finished fourth there earlier this year.
Denny Hamlin won the Goody's Cool Orange 500 in March at Martinsville. Hamlin, from nearby Chesterfield, VA, gave up the lead midway through the race when he pitted. He fell deep in the field, but patiently made his way back and reclaimed the top spot on Lap 427. Hamlin led the final 73 laps and held off a hard-charging Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon for his first victory this season.
"It's going to be a track that's somewhat of a wild card," Hamlin said. "I think you have some guys that are in the Chase that particularly don't run well at Martinsville and some guys that do. It's a track that we always look at that we can make up a few points. If Jimmie is the leader, it's going to be hard because he runs really well there. We can obviously gain on some guys that are in front of us in points right now."
Hamlin is currently 12th in points (-380).
Gordon, meanwhile, has an equally impressive track record at Martinsville as does his teammate Johnson. The four-time Cup champion has finished ninth or better, including four victories, in the last 11 races.
Gordon has yet to score a victory this year, but Martinsville could be where his winless streak comes to an end.
"We've had some good runs and that's the thing when you haven't had enough consistently good runs, then you only can think about those couple that got away and that's hard," Gordon said. "Any season that we've ever won you're usually knocking on the door in several races. You're leading laps consistently, you're running in the top-five and those wins come. It's not about if you're going to win, it's just when. This year we have not put ourselves in the position to have those opportunities go our way more often."
Forty five teams are on the preliminary entry list for this weekend's race at Martinsville. Mike Bliss will take over driving duties of the No.00 Toyota for Michael Waltrip Racing. Bliss, a Nationwide Series regular, becomes the third different driver to take the seat of the MWR car in as many races. AJ Allmendinger drove the car at Lowe's, and Kenny Wallace was behind the wheel at Talladega. The team's full-time driver, Michael McDowell, was relieved of his duties after he failed to qualify for Kansas.
Allmendinger will drive the No.10 Dodge for Gillett Evernham Motorsports for the remainder of the season, beginning with Martinsville.
Craftsman Truck Series
Kroger 200 - Martinsville Speedway - Martinsville, VA
The Craftsman Truck Series will also run their final short-track race of the year with the Kroger 200 at Martinsville. And a lot will be at stake as far as the championship point standings are concerned.
After a wild event at Talladega, defending series champion Ron Hornaday, Jr. moved ahead in the standings.
Todd Bodine won at Talladega in a thrilling finish as he passed Kyle Busch for the lead coming out of the final turn of the last lap and then held off Hornaday to the finish line. Hornaday's second-place finish coupled with an 11th-place run for Johnny Benson allowed Hornaday to take a 39-point lead over Benson with five races remaining in the season.
Both Hornaday and Benson have competed in truck races at Martinsville since 1995, but neither has yet to win there. Hornaday has scored seven Top-10 finishes in 12 starts at Martinsville with his best finish of third coming three times, most recently one year ago.
"Overall, I've had some success at the track," said Hornaday. "So, hopefully we can take care of business this time around."
Benson has scored three top-10 finishes in the last four races at Martinsville. He finished 25th there earlier this year.
Mike Skinner is the defending race winner. Skinner held off Jack Sprague in the final 60 laps and beat him to the finish line by two-truck lengths for a season-sweep at Martinsville last year.
Skinner and Dennis Setzer lead all drivers with three Truck Series victories at Martinsville. Setzer's most recent win there came in March.
"I think it takes two things to have success at Martinsville, the first being track position and second taking care of your equipment," Setzer said. "It is easy to get aggressive during practice and use up your brakes and tires."
Among the 39 preliminary entries, four of them are Sprint Cup regulars. Jamie McMurray will make his first truck start since he won at Martinsville four years ago. McMurray will drive the No.09 Ford for Roush Fenway Racing. Sam Hornish, Jr. will attempt to make his first start in the series, driving the No.4 Dodge for Bobby Hamilton Racing. Kyle Busch will be behind the wheel of the No.51 Toyota for Billy Ballew Motorsports, while driver and team owner Kevin Harvick replaces Jack Sprague in the No.2 Chevrolet.
Sprague will be back in the No.60 Toyota in which he won the 2006 Kroger 200 at Martinsville with Wyler Racing. Wyler's previous driver, Terry Cook, has moved on to the No.59 Toyota for team owner Jim Harris.
Formula One
Chinese Grand Prix - Shanghai International Circuit - Shanghai, China
Just two races remain in the 2008 Formula One season, and things are getting interesting in the battle for the World Championship.
Lewis Hamilton's 12th-place finish and a 25-second penalty assessed to Sebastien Bourdais allowed Felipe Massa to shave two points off of Hamilton's lead following last Sunday's Japanese Grand Prix.
Hamilton started on the pole, but quickly lost the lead to Robert Kubica after turning into the first corner too quickly. He dropped to sixth on the second lap when he made contact with Massa while battling for position. The two spun with Hamilton forced to make an unscheduled pit stop for new tires.
Both drivers were each given a drive-through penalty for their separate incidents in the opening laps.
Bourdais was initially credited with a sixth-place finish, but at the conclusion of the race, he was assessed a timed penalty for his contact with Massa. On Lap 50, Bourdais was rejoining the field after his pit stop, while Massa was attempting to pass around him on the outside of turn one. The two made contact, putting Massa into a spin. The Brazilian driver had originally been scored with an eighth-place run. The race stewards' decision dropped Bourdais from sixth to 10th, while Massa advanced to seventh.
One year ago, Hamilton won the Japanese Grand Prix and held a 12-point lead over his then-McLaren teammate Fernando Alonso and a 17-point advantage over Ferrari's Kimi Raikkonen. Hamilton, however, suffered a devastating blow the following week in the Chinese Grand Prix as he blew a tire while entering pit lane. He spun and got stuck in the gravel trap. Hamilton ended up finishing 19th, while Raikkonen scored the victory and Alonso finished second.
Hamilton remained the points leader, but his margin was just four over Alonso and seven ahead of Raikkonen.
Two weeks after China, Raikkonen leaped over Alonso and Hamilton to capture the World Championship after winning the season-ending Brazilian Grand Prix. Hamilton faded early in the race and was never a factor as he finished seventh, while Alonso came in third. Raikkonen claimed the F1 title by only one point over Hamilton and Alonso.
With Massa now five points behind Hamilton and Kubica 12 points out, could we see a repeat of last year's remarkable turnaround?
Even though he's been eliminated from this year's title race, Alonso continues to be a late-season surprise. The two-time World Champion snapped a year-long winless streak with a victory in the Singapore GP and then followed up with a Japanese GP win. Alonso hopes to make it three in a row this weekend in China.
"I can't wait to get back in the car this weekend as it's an interesting place to drive a Formula One car," Alonso said. "I think the circuit provides several interesting challenges for both the drivers and the engineers. It's made up of long straights, high-speed corners, but also some slow corners...The whole team is very motivated after our two wins in Singapore and Fuji and we will do everything possible to have another strong race."
A second-place finish at Japan kept Kubica's championship hopes alive, but can the Pole remain in the title hunt after China?
"I haven't had much luck at this circuit so far," Kubica said. "I hope that changes this time, and I can pick up some important points for the World Championship."
Kubica finished 18th in last year's Chinese GP.
The Shanghai International Circuit was designed as the race circuit for the new millennium. The modern track, with its stunning architecture, has been planned as China's gateway to the world of F1 competition. Not only is the course remarkable for its change of acceleration and deceleration in different winding turns, but also for its high-speed straights making high demands on the driver as well as the car. This should offer many opportunities for overtaking and give an intense and exciting motorsports experience to the spectators. The main grandstand with 29,000 seats provides a spectacular view of almost 80 percent of the circuit - one of the new features in race track design realized in Shanghai.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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