10/23/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two days, 14 races, $25.5 million. The 25th running of the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships at Santa Anita Park has become bigger than anyone could have imagined when it began in 1984.
I will not attempt to handicap each of the 14 races that will be conducted on Friday and Saturday, and I never pick the two-year-old races, which now number four.
However, this website does have Breeders' Cup selections available from four of our most intelligent handicappers, including myself. Use these picks cautiously, but with expected multiple cashin' not trashin'
Starting with the big race, $5 million Classic at 1 1/4 miles. Defending champ Curlin is 7-5 in the program and if he goes off at that price it will be a steal.
Curlin must be included in all exotic wagers, but I will not single him in my straight bets. Breaking from the inside post will be Pacific Classic winner Go Between, 8-1 in the morning-line. He has become the master of the synthetic track.
Back in January, Go Between won the $1 million Sunshine Millions Classic on the old artificial surface at Santa Anita. Go Between then had consecutive second-place finishes on synthetic tracks at Santa Anita, Keeneland and Hollywood Park. I have liked Go Between since his three-year-old season and love his chance to upset Curlin on Saturday.
Friday's feature event is the $2 million Ladies' Classic, formerly the Distaff. The 3-5 odds-on favorite is the undefeated Zenyatta. She will start from the inside post with Mike Smith riding.
Zenyatta has not lost in eight career starts, but is barely past the $1 million mark in earnings. She comes from off the pace and may find herself in trouble breaking from the rail.
Let's go with defending champ Ginger Punch. This year she has won five of seven starts with a second and a third. The third was to Zenyatta back in April. Ginger Punch is 9-2 in the program and will start from post six with Rafael Bejarano. The mare will be on or near the lead before she rallies down the stretch to win in a photo-finish.
One of my favorite trainers, Jonathan Sheppard, has a horse in the Filly and Mare Turf. Forever Together, 6-1, has drawn post three with Julien Leparoux riding. The pair have won the Diana and First Lady Stakes. Look for her to come from way back to take the 1 1/4 mile race.
The 1 1/2 mile Turf on Saturday features the only horse to beat Curlin this year, Red Rocks. The five-year-old is the 5-1 second choice behind 7-2 favorite Soldier of Fortune.
Red Rocks won this race two years ago and was third last year to English Channel. Frankie Dettori has the mount from post two. If Red Rocks is good enough to defeat Curlin he's good enough for me.
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile appears to be the most evenly matched race on the entire card. Surf Cat, Mast Track, Well Armed and Pyro have been entered for the one-mile event over the Classic.
Goodwood winner Well Armed is the 3-1 favorite and will break from post eight with Aaron Gryder. Surf Cat has post two with David Flores and is 6-1 in the program. Also 6-1 is Hollywood Gold Cup winner Mast Track. He will start from post four with Tyler Baze. Mast Track has a quarter-crack and was held out of the Classic.
However, I like three-year-old Pyro in the Dirt Mile. At 20-1 he is an overlay in the 12 horse field. Pyro has been in the money in all but two starts. Even though he didn't like the artificial track at Keeneland, trainer Steve Asmussen must know what he is doing. Pyro will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan from post six, a perfect spot to pull the upset.
My final extended handicapping is for the Breeders' Cup Mile. Defending champ Kip Deville returns. This pick put me over the top last year when the miler went off at 8-1. The five-year-old is 5-1 in the program, behind 3-1 favorite Goldikova and 4-1 second choice Whatsthescript.
Kip Deville is coming off a disappointing fifth in the Woodbine Mile as the 1-2 favorite. But he won his first two starts this year and should primed for an excellent effort.
Good luck to everyone, especially to those directly involved with the Breeders' Cup.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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