Predators, Blues to begin season with Central clash

Hockey Betting Lines

10/10/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If the Nashville Predators are to make the postseason for a fifth straight season, they will likely have to do so without one of their top performers from a year ago.

Minus Alexander Radulov, Nashville begins its 2008-09 season with a road test against the St. Louis Blues at the Scottrade Center.

Despite a roster overhaul and uncertainty in ownership last year, Nashville skated to a 41-32-9 mark (91 points), good enough to claim the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs while marking the franchise's fourth straight postseason appearance. Though the club was ousted by the top-seeded and eventual Stanley Cup winning Detroit Red Wings, Nashville performed better than anyone could have thought.

So it came as a surprise when 26-goal scorer Radulov jumped ship to the Kontinental Hockey League of Russia despite having a year left on his NHL contract. The two leagues have agreed to a binding arbitration to determine where Radulov will play, but until then the 22-year-old forward has been suspended indefinitely by Nashville.

Unlike last offseason, when the Predators were forced to trade away or let go via free agency a handful of talented players, Nashville actually locked up some of its own this summer. The team handed out contract extensions to head coach Barry Trotz, winger Martin Erat (7 years, $31.5 million) and defenseman Ryan Suter (4 years, $14 million).

Erat, who matched a career-high with 57 points for the second straight season in 2007-08 and tallied a personal-best 23 goals a year ago, will join Jason Arnott (28 goals, 44 assists) on Nashville's top line. Meanwhile, left wing J.P. Dumont had one of the best offensive outputs of his career, as the 30- year-old posted a career-high 29 goals.

The Predators will also get forward Steve Sullivan back after he missed all of last season because of an ailing back.

Nashville's young blueline took a bit of a hit when Marek Zidlicky was dealt to Minnesota in the offseason, but the club still has 25-year-old Dan Hamhuis and 23-year-old Shea Weber back on D in addition to Suter.

The Preds used a two-headed monster between the pipes in the form of Dan Ellis and Chris Mason last year, with Ellis starting 37 games to Mason's 45. The 28- year-old Ellis is the starter this year, however, after Mason was dealt to the Blues. Ellis went 23-10-3 with six shutouts and a 2.34 goals against average in 2007-08.

While Nashville will have to adjust without Radulov, St. Louis begins the season without its top young defender in Erik Johnson, who could miss the entire season due to a torn ACL and MCL in his right knee. The 20-year-old American skater posted five goals and 28 assists in his first NHL season last year.

That will put more pressure on the likes of Eric Brewer, Barret Jackman, and Jay McKee on defense. Brewer will likely quarterback the power play in the absence of Johnson.

Offensively, the Blues, who finished 33-36-13 (79 points) last year despite a strong start, will hope Brad Boyes can extend his breakout season from a year ago. The 26-year-old forward, who scored 26 goals with Boston in 2005-06, broke out for 43 goals in his first full season with the Blues last year.

Also hoping to get the Blues going on offense will be Paul Kariya (16g, 49a), Andy McDonald (18g, 34a with the Ducks/Blues) and Keith Tkachuk (27g, 31a).

Blues veteran goaltender Manny Legace made the Western Conference All-Star team last year thanks to a strong first half of the season, but then struggled after the All-Star break.

Legace was 17-13-4 with a 2.28 GAA in his first 37 games, but was 10-12-4 with a 2.57 GAA over his final 29 outings. Still, he heads into this season as the team's No. 1 netminder despite the fact that he'll make $500,000 less than backup Mason, who the Blues hope will help keep Legace fresh down the stretch.

The Blues won the first three meetings between these Central Division foes last season, but the Predators took the final five tests in the series. Nashville is an outstanding 20-3-1 against St. Louis since the start of the 2005-06 campaign, which includes a 9-3-0 mark at the Scottrade Center.

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Big 12 Conference betting odds

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.









How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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