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03/17/2010 - Dallas, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Caron Butler scored 27 points and Dirk Nowitzki added 26 as the Mavericks ran past Chicago, 113-106, sending the short-handed Bulls to their ninth consecutive defeat.
J.J. Barea registered 15 points for Dallas, which won for the 14th time in 15 games. Shawn Marion scored 12 and Rodrigue Beaubois tallied 11 for the Mavs, who bounced back from a shocking 34-point home loss to New York on Saturday. They moved into a tie with Denver for the second-best record in the Western Conference.
The Mavericks also saw the return of Jason Terry. The veteran guard, who had missed the last five games due to facial surgery, had nine points in nearly 25 minutes of court time.
"When you come back from two weeks and able to hit your first shot and get right into it offensively, that's great," Mavs coach Rick Carlisle said. "Conditioning is going to be a bit of a factor here for a few games until he really back into 100 percent."
Acie Law scored a career-best 22 points for the Bulls, who haven't won since February 26 at home against Portland. This is the longest skid for Chicago since opening the 2004-05 campaign with an 0-9 record.
Chicago fell 2 1/2 games behind Toronto for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
The Bulls played without their top three scorers as Derrick Rose (sprained left wrist), Luol Deng (strained calf) and Joakim Noah (left foot) all missed the game.
"We've got to tighten up some things defensively," Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro said. "That's how we won early in the season. We can't control the paint and we're not controlling penetration as well as we'd like. We just have to keep trying to find ways to improve in a lot of areas, and it makes it tough when half your team is new."
The Mavs got off to a blazing start, shooting 11-of-16 from the field in the first quarter. Butler scored nine in the period as the home team grabbed a 32-20 lead after 12 minutes.
Dallas continued to expand the lead in the second with Beaubois' driving layup moving the cushion to 57-33 with 3:06 left in the quarter. The largest lead was 25, at 60-35, following a Barea three-pointer at the two-minute mark.
The lead stood at 64-44 at the half and it never dipped under 15 in the third, with Law banging in a three-pointer for an 88-72 difference at the end of the period.
Chicago actually got within single digits, closing the gap to 100-93 on a Brad Miller three-point play with 5:34 remaining. Barea, though, stemmed the tide with a three-ball and he then added a layup and another three-pointer for a dominating 108-93 margin. Chicago got only as close as the final score.
"J.J. really stepped up big in the fourth quarter and saved us," Nowitzki said. "He made some big shots, two big threes, two pull-up jumpers behind the screens because they left him open and he really used the screen and knocked some shots down."
Game Notes
Dallas has won eight of 10 and 21 of the last 24 meetings...Chicago has lost five in a row at Dallas...Butler went 14-of-16 at the foul line...The Bulls went 0-4 on their road trip and will return to the Windy City to host Cleveland on Friday...The Mavs, who host Boston Saturday, are now 19-1 when shooting at least 50 percent. They ended at 52.6 percent in this game.
<< Millsap, Korver pace Utah rout of Minnesota
Salt Lake City, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver were at the
head of a balanced scoring attack with 21 and 20 points, respectively, as the
Utah Jazz logged a runaway win over Minnesota, 122-100.
Carlos Boozer had 19 poin
<< Brooks perfect from long distance, Rockets end Memphis' road run
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aaron Brooks led all scorers with 31 points and
made all seven of his three-point attempts as the Rockets topped the
Grizzlies, 107-94, ending Memphis' franchise-record seven-game road winning
streak.
<< Celtics get St. Patty's Day win over Knicks
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paul Pierce scored 29 points in 24 minutes to
lead Boston in a 109-97 win against the Knicks amid a sea of green on St.
Patrick's Day at the Garden.
Kevin Garnett added 22 points on 9-of-11 shooting f
<< Sixers stop slide, topple Nets
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andre Iguodala netted 20 points and
dished out eight assists as the Sixers took down the reeling Nets, 108-97, at
the Wachovia Center.
Jrue Holiday netted 19 and Elton Brand added 12 points and eig
Cal starter Amoke suspended on eve of NCAA tourney >>
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - California starting forward Omondi Amoke has
reportedly been suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules and is
not expected to suit up for the Bears' NCAA Tournament opener against
Louisvi
Ryan nets two as Ducks continue Blackhawks' slide >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bobby Ryan notched a pair of goals as Anaheim
doubled up Chicago, 4-2, at Honda Center.
Todd Marchant and Saku Koivu also tallied and Corey Perry added a pair of
assists for the Ducks, who have won two i
Rockies closer Street likely to start season on DL >>
Tucson, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Colorado Rockies closer Huston Street is
likely to start the upcoming season on the disabled list due to a right
shoulder injury.
Street underwent an MRI Wednesday and has been experiencing sor
Wozniacki reaches Indian Wells semis >>
Indian Wells, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Caroline Wozniacki gutted out a three-set
victory late Wednesday to reach the semifinals at the $4.5 million BNP Paribas
Open.
The native of Denmark, who was last year's U.S. Open runner-up and entere
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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