10/05/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In their nine years under head coach Mike Holmgren, the Seattle Seahawks have achieved things well beyond the realm of what the organization had previously experienced.
Perennial top-dog status in the NFC West. The franchise's first Super Bowl appearance. The emergence of Shaun Alexander as a league MVP and Matt Hasselbeck as a Pro Bowler.
Given their level of success over the past decade, it would have only been fitting if Holmgren - who previously announced he would step down at the end of the year - went out with a season that emphasized his status as the best head coach in team history.
Instead, it looks like the end could be a painful one for Holmgren.
On Sunday, the Seahawks dropped to 1-3 with a 44-6 loss at the New York Giants, looking terrible in a defeat that showed just how far this team has drifted from the NFC elite.
"That was what we call a good old-fashioned you-know-what," said Holmgren after the loss, the team's most decisive setback since an opening-week defeat to the Jets in 1997. "I believe we're a better football team than that, but give the Giants credit. They really took it to us today."
Seattle rarely plays well in the early time slot on the east coast, but there was hope that things were about to turn around for the Hawks after a mostly shaky September. They had routed the Rams (37-13) last time out, and were coming off their bye looking as healthy as the team had since the preseason.
Wideouts Deion Branch (knee) and Bobby Engram (shoulder) both made their first appearances of the year on Sunday, but didn't make much of a difference for Matt Hasselbeck and the sputtering offense.
Hasselbeck completed just 11-of-21 passes for 105 yards with an interception before being sidelined by a hyperextended knee in the second half. Under Hasselbeck and replacement Seneca Wallace, the Seahawks were just 1-of-11 on first downs and finished the day with 187 total yards.
"We were terrible on third downs, we didn't play well," said Hasselbeck, whose passer rating has been 53.9 or worse in the team's three defeats. "Our numbers were unbelievable the other way. You know there is a lot of football left to be played, but today was disappointing. I think we're a lot better than that."
Branch failed to make it to the finish line either, succumbing to a heel injury after catching three passes for 31 yards. Engram had eight grabs for 61 yards, but that stat-line was lost in the rout.
"We didn't perform nearly as well as we should," noted Engram. "I'm speaking in terms of consistency, making plays, and sticking to our assignments. We didn't make any big plays and we gave up too many of them...that is a recipe for disaster."
As poor as the offense was, the defense was worse.
The Giants churned up 254 of their whopping total of 523 yards on the ground, and Seattle didn't seem especially eager to tackle Brandon Jacobs (15 carries, 136 yards, 2 TD).
Eli Manning (19-of-25, 267 yards, 2 TD) wasn't fazed by Seattle's much- ballyhooed pass rush, suffering just one sack on a day in which David Carr was brought in to mop up...in the third quarter. Fittingly, on his only pass attempt, Carr threw a touchdown.
"[Defense is] one of the things we're going to have to take a hard look at to see if we can come up with some answers," said Holmgren, who has seen his team allow an average of 37 points in its three losses. "I believe we're capable and I don't think we've played our best football yet on that side of the ball.
"The Giants are a load, but we knew that, and we knew what we had to do. That big guy, their running back (Jacobs) really had a day, and so did their quarterback."
The silver lining for the Seahawks is that they're far from dead in the NFC West. Arizona leads the division at a vulnerable 3-2, and San Francisco (2-3) has a road win in Seattle to its credit but is a major work in progress. The Rams are 0-4 and on a collision course with a top three draft pick.
At the same time, the Hawks had better answer the bell soon if they wish to make a run at a sixth consecutive playoff berth.
Seattle still has three games against teams from the mighty NFC East, must go cross-country to Tampa Bay and Miami, has difficult trips to San Francisco and Arizona and will be tested in home tilts against Green Bay, New England and the Jets.
The Packers will come in next week as a hungry football team fresh off three straight losses.
The way the Seahawks have played during their first four games, is it realistic to expect them to win a majority of the above games? Is it realistic to expect they'll win any of them?
"Everyone has to fix it, coaches and players," noted Holmgren in the wake of Sunday's fiasco. "There are any number of statistical analyses of teams that have started this bad and still done OK, but those don't mean much unless you improve the product, and what you're doing on the field.
"That's our goal, and we'll get this one behind us rather quickly, I trust, and get on with Green Bay. You don't have any choice, because you have a really good football team coming in next week."
<< Creamer hangs on for fourth win in '08
Half Moon Bay, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paula Creamer closed with a three-under
69 Sunday to fend off Song-Hee Kim to win the Samsung World Championship.
Creamer, who picked up her fourth win of the season and eighth of her LPGA
Tour care
<< Turner, Falcons edge Rodgers and the Pack
Green Bay, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michael Turner finished with 121 rushing
yards and a touchdown as the Atlanta Falcons downed the Green Bay Packers,
27-24, at Lambeau Field.
Matt Ryan went 16-for-26 with 194 yards, two touchdown
<< Johnson earns first win at Turning Stone
Verona, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dustin Johnson birdied each of the last two
holes Sunday to close out a round of three-under 69, which gave him his first
PGA Tour title at the Turning Stone Resort Championship.
Johnson completed his firs
<< Burrell blasts Phillies into NLCS
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pat Burrell belted two of Philadelphia's four
home runs, as the Phillies earned a trip to the National League Championship
Series for the first time in 15 years with a 6-2 victory over the Milwaukee
Brewers
Stewart wins a wild one at Talladega >>
Talladega, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tony Stewart will end his final year with
Joe Gibbs Racing with at least one victory before he moves on to start his own
Sprint Cup Series team next year. Stewart ended a 43-race winless streak with
a thril
Dolphins charge past San Diego for second straight win >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ronnie Brown ran for 125 yards and a touchdown,
leading the Miami Dolphins to a 17-10 victory over the San Diego Chargers at
Dolphin Stadium.
Chad Pennington completed 22-of-29 passes for 228 yards with a s
Giants remain perfect, clobber Seahawks >>
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brandon Jacobs gashed the Seahawks
defense for 136 yards and two touchdowns on just 15 carries, as the New York
Giants remained perfect on the young season after a 44-6 rout of Seattle.
Eli Mann
Bills' Edwards leaves with concussion >>
Glendale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Buffalo Bills quarterback Trent Edwards was
forced to leave Sunday's 41-17 loss to the Arizona Cardinals with a
concussion.
Buffalo started the game with the ball and Edwards completed three s
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting