05/09/2008 -
It may be too late for the White Sox to get a refund for the sensitivity training they were ordered to put manager Ozzie Guillen through two summers ago. The man seems more determined than ever to talk his way out of a job.
``Those people are gonna make me a lot of money later. Because as soon as I'm done,'' Guillen said Thursday, referring to reporters, ``I'll be the only manager they remember.''
``Who's the manager they remember the most?'' he asked a moment later, not waiting for an answer. ``Billy Martin. They don't remember Sparky Anderson. They remember Billy Martin because he was the crazy one.''
In the news business, we call this becoming the ally of your gravedigger. If most of us had a stretch on the job like the one Guillen is in the midst of, the last thing we'd do is call attention to it. Not the Wizard of Oz.
While his ballclub was plummeting in the American League Central, Guillen was complaining about the Cubs always being the darlings of the Chicago media. While his sorry hitters were deflating faster than the blow-up dolls they posed in the locker room to break the slump, Guillen defended the stunt.
``Some people like stuff,'' he said one more time, ``some don't.''
If the White Sox were a college program instead of a pro baseball team, the organization would already be on double-secret probation for what the NCAA calls ``a lack of institutional control.'' Instead of apologizing for any of it, Guillen resorted to an old ruse, suggesting one more time there is a method to his madness.
``Who cares about Britney Spears? But she's on TV every day. Why do you think people give a ... about Jose Canseco? That ... sells,'' Guillen said.
It also ends careers prematurely, something that seems to have been on Guillen's mind almost since the beginning of his tenure in charge of the White Sox. Every manager knows he's hired to be fired, but few get their first shot in a town so ready to embrace them.
A crowd of almost 38,000 sprung to its feet when Guillen was introduced on April 13, 2004, for his first home game as manager. Many of them no doubt remembered the mercurial, slick-fielding shortstop who had made his debut there as a player nearly 20 seasons earlier and went on to become Rookie of the Year.
Back then, Guillen could be every bit as entertaining with his mouth as he was with a glove. He grew up in Venezuela dreaming about the day he would follow in the footsteps of two previous White Sox shortstops, Chico Carrasquel and Luis Aparicio, who became legends back home. And just like them, Guillen arrived on these shores as a teenager, trying to learn English in the sometimes-crude environs of a locker room. The difference is that once Guillen figured out he could make audiences titter by dropping f-bombs and wholesale insults, he couldn't stop unloading them.
The shame is that like a lot of class clowns, Guillen isn't just fearless, he's smart. The same impulsive qualities that made him a headline writer's dream also made him look like a pretty shrewd manager - once.
Rewind back to the World Series-winning season of 2005 and what you'll find is a guy leading a ballclub with a series of inspired hunches. In what might have been the pivotal game against Houston, Guillen passed up his regular closer in the late innings three times in favor of relievers who hadn't worked, on average, in a month. Then he got the game-winning home run from Geoff Blum, who had exactly one at-bat the entire postseason, and did what he could to spread the credit around.
``I've never seen a team as magical as this one,'' Guillen said at the time, and he turned out to be right.
By the following July, the White Sox were in a tailspin that left them some 25 games below .500, and nothing Guillen has done or said since has accomplished anything. He first threatened to walk away from baseball if the White Sox won it all toward the end of that magical 2005 season and he's repeated it several times now. In between, he's feuded with players, cursed reporters and forced the White Sox brass to explain away one embarrassment after another.
How much of a toll it's taken already is something only Guillen or owner Jerry Reinsdorf know. The owner once referred to his manager as ``the Hispanic Jackie Mason,'' and just extended his contract through 2012.
What they seem to have forgotten, though, is that laughing at the hijinks, insults and all that foul language would be a lot easier if it wasn't for all that losing.
---
Jim Litke is a national sports columnist for The Associated Press. Write to him at jlitkeap.orgCopyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Sportsbook betting odds favor Europe in Ryder Cup
September 19, – Despite holding a decided edge in the all-time series, with 24 wins, 2 ties and 10 losses, Team USA is the underdog again heading into the Ryder Cup in Kidare, Ireland this weekend, according to MySportsbook.com. The Europeans have captured four of the past five editions, including their largest victory ever, an 18 ½ to 9 ½ thumping in Michigan in 2004. Current Ryder Cup betting odds favor the Europeans to continue their winning ways; they are a 4-5 bet to take the title, compared to 6-5 for the Americans.
Despite being knocked out in the first round of World Match play by Shaun Micheel, Tiger Woods is predicted to lead the US charge and be their highest point scorer for the week, with odds listed at 9-4 that he outpoints all other American players, including Jim Furyk, Phil Mickelson and Chris DiMarco to name a few. Team USA has four relatively unknown players on the roster but all four are 2007 tournament winners and have posted some of season’s best performances, each earning over $1.5 million on the PGA TOUR. They include Zach Johnson, Vaughan Taylor, JJ Henry and Brett Wetterich.
The experienced European squad includes the likes of Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia, Padraig Harrington, Jose Maria Olazabal and Darren Clarke, who’s emotions will be tested after the passing of his wife to a battle with cancer. Donald and Garcia are in particularly good form and each is a 5-1 bet to lead the European squad in the points race. Donald has proven he can go head to head with Woods at a major event after a run for the $1.2 million purse at the PGA Championship. Garcia’s Ryder Cup credentials prove he’s ready for battle too.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your golf sportsbook needs.
Ryder Cup Odds| Europe Tie USA |
4-5 10-1 6-5 |
| Tiger Woods Jim Furyk Phil Mickelson Chris DiMarco David Toms Stewart Cink Chad Campbell Scott Verplank Zach Johnson Vaughan Taylor JJ Henry Brett Wetterich |
9-4 4-1 5-1 7-1 8-1 12-1 15-1 15-1 25-1 30-1 30-1 50-1 |
| Sergio Garcia Luke Donald Padraig Harrington Colin Montgomerie Darren Clarke David Howell Lee Westwood Paul Casey Henrik Stenson Jose Maria Olazabal Paul McGinley Robert Karlsson |
5-1 5-1 6-1 13-2 8-1 9-1 9-1 11-1 12-1 12-1 20-1 25-1 |
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com
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