Banged-up Nuggets try to snap skid vs. Warriors

Basketball Betting Lines

02/09/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Denver Nuggets are not making excuses that injuries are the main reason why they're mired in a season-high four-game losing streak.

"We have a lot of young talent and a lot of players with experience. We have a long bench and at this moment with the injuries, we have to find a way to play better and more aggressively," said Nuggets reserve guard Rudy Fernandez.

The Nuggets hope to right the ship tonight in the finale of a three-game homestand versus the Golden State Warriors at the Pepsi Center and have been dealing with a rash of injuries to leading scorer Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov and the absence of Corey Brewer, who is dealing with the death of his father. Gallinari is expected to miss about a month with an ankle injury and Mozgov is nursing the same kind of injury.

Denver did get a healthy Aaron Afflalo (ankle/toe) and Nene (heel) back in Wednesday's matchup with the defending NBA champion Dallas Mavericks, but dropped a 105-95 decision. Al Harrington and Fernandez each scored 17 points, while Ty Lawson chipped in 16 points and 10 assists in the Nuggets' sixth loss in seven tries since a season-best six-game winning streak.

"I don't think we're playing bad basketball, I just don't think we're playing winning basketball," said Nuggets coach George Karl about his team's skid. "I think right now we're doing the [right] things probably 30-35 minutes a game."

Nene added 16 points and grabbed 10 boards, and Afflalo finished with 12 points. Andre Miller posted 11 in a losing effort. The Nuggets, who are 7-6 at home this season, will play four of five games on the road following tonight's test with the Warriors.

Warriors leading scorer Monta Ellis is averaging 33.0 points over his last three games and his career-high 48-point performance in Tuesday's 119-116 loss versus Oklahoma City wasn't enough to lift his team to victory. Ellis has averaged 19.4 points in 16 career games against Denver and hopes to improve that number Thursday night in the Rocky Mountains.

"It was just going in for me tonight," Ellis said after the loss. "Unfortunately we didn't get the win. Our effort was there, we played them hard the whole game and it just came down to one shot."

David Lee had a triple-double with 25 points 11 boards and 10 assists in the loss to the Thunder, while Stephen Curry recorded a double-double with 16 points and 10 assists for Golden State, which has lost two straight and six of its last nine contests. The Warriors shot 55 percent and still lost. Dorell Wright had just nine points, but is averaging 16.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.40 steals in his last five games.

Lee's second career triple-double was the first by a Warriors power forward since Chris Webber back in 1993. The Warriors look to build on their 2-6 road record this evening and have dropped two straight as the guest. They are 3-9 against the West this season and will have several chances to improve that record in a current stretch of 15 games in a row against the conference (3-4).

Warriors guard Nate Robinson (groin) is questionable against the Nuggets.

Golden State lost two of three meetings with Denver a year ago and has dropped 10 of the past 12 matchups between the teams. The Warriors haven't played so well lately in the Rockies either, losing six straight and 13 of 14 visits there. They haven't won a set with the Nuggets since a four-game sweep in 2002-03.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.