ALCS Preview - Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Baseball Betting Lines

10/08/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays will battle for the right to represent the American League at the World Series when the best- of-seven ALCS gets underway on Friday at Tropicana Field.

While the defending world champion Red Sox are ALCS regulars, appearing in this round for the fourth time in the last six years, the Rays, of course, are new to the party, playing in their first-ever postseason.

These teams are obviously no stranger to one another, having played 18 times throughout the season. Tampa managed to win 10 of those contests with eight of the victories coming on their home field.

Of course, the season series reached a fevered pitch on June 5 when a bench clearing brawl marred Boston's 7-1 win at Fenway. After Coco Crisp slid into second a little too hard for Tampa's liking the night before, Tampa starter James Shields let him know about it the following night, hitting him and setting off an ugly incident.

After several punches were thrown by members of both teams, Crisp, Shields and Rays' designated hitter Jonny Gomes, who threw several shots at Crisp on the ground, were all ejected and suspended.

In all, eight players were suspended and fined for the incident.

The AL East's doormat since their inception in 1998, the Rays managed a franchise-high 97 wins this season on their way to their first-ever division title.

Tampa's surprising run continued in the ALDS, as the Rays disposed of the AL Central-champion Chicago White Sox in four games. Tampa easily won the first two games of that series at home before falling in Game 3 at Chicago. The Rays, though, overcame that hiccup and got a great performance from Andy Sonnanstine in Game 4 to advance.

Boston, meanwhile, was relegated to the wild card this year after finishing two games back of the Rays.

Boston advanced in the ALDS, as it knocked off the 100-win Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in four games. Even with a banged up offense and a not-100-percent Josh Beckett, the Red Sox continued their dominance of the Angels, who they have now beaten in 12 of their last 13 playoff meetings.

The Red Sox, who are appearing in their ninth ALCS in team history, come into this series having won 10 of their last 11 playoff games.

LINEUP

A lot was made about how the Red Sox would fare without Manny Ramirez's big bat in the postseason. Jason Bay, though, answered any questions anyone may have had, as he batted a team-high .412 in his first-ever postseason action with two home runs and five RBI.

Shortstop Jed Lowrie and center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury also contributed, hitting .364 and .333, respectively. Ellsbury also stole three bases and knocked in a team-high six runs.

If the Red Sox are going to get by in this series, though, they are going to need more from their big three of David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis. The trio combined for just nine hits in the series with the MVP- candidate Pedroia contributing just one.

However, Pedroia's lone hit was an RBI double which put the Red Sox up by two in Game 4. Last year he struggled in the ALDS, but bounced back with a 10-hit LCS before a solid World Series.

Boston will be without last year's World Series MVP Mike Lowell for this set. Lowell will miss the series because of a hip injury. So with Lowell out, Youkilis shifts over to third, while Mark Kotsay steps in at first.

Evan Longoria's magnificent first season for Tampa Bay continued in the ALDS, as he became the first player since Gary Gaetti in 1987 to homer in his first two postseason at-bats. Longoria cooled off considerably after his three-RBI Game 1 effort and was hitless in eight at-bats over the final two games.

Longoria, though, was one of the few Rays who struggled, as Carlos Pena (.500), Dioner Navarro (.400), Akinori Iwamura (.389) and B.J. Upton (.278, 3 HR) all had big series.

Carl Crawford, after missing most of the final two months of the regular season with a finger injury, was on base just five times in the series, but managed three stolen bases.

Pena managed five hits in just 10 at-bats, but had to miss Game 2 following a dizzy spell in the opening game. He is fine, though, and played in the final two games.

Outside of Longoria and Pena, there is not a lot of power in the Rays lineup, but they excel in situational hitting and do all the little things right, not only at the plate, but on the base paths as well. Six players had on-base- percentages of .346 or higher during the regular season, while three players had 20 or more stolen bases.

EDGE: RAYS

STARTING PITCHING

Red Sox manager Terry Francona will apparently hand the ball in Game 1 to Japanese right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka, who was 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA, despite a league-high 94 walks. Matsuzaka did not get a decision in the Red Sox Game 2 win, as he surrendered three runs and eight hits in five innings. He also walked three batters.

Matsuzaka, though, has been very good on the road, where he was a perfect 9-0 with a 2.37 ERA.

Getting the call in Game 2 for Boston will be right-hander Josh Beckett, who was banged around in his Game 3 start against the Angels.

After having his start pushed back because of an oblique injury, Beckett put forth the worst postseason start of his career, as he allowed four runs and nine hits in five innings.

Beckett, who is 5-3 lifetime against the Rays, had won all four of his postseason starts a year ago, but saw his playoff ERA rise from 1.73 to 2.09.

Jon Lester will go for the Red Sox in Game 3, as he tries to continue his Beckett-like postseason run. In his two wins against the Angels, Lester gave up just one unearned run in 14 innings.

He is also 4-0 in his career against the Rays with a 3.38 ERA in seven starts. He was brilliant against Tampa at Fenway back on September 8, holding the upstarts to six hits in 7 2/3 scoreless innings. He was 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA in his three starts against them this season, fanning 19 batters in 20 innings.

Veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield will start Game 4 for the Red Sox.

Rays manager Joe Maddon, meanwhile, is expected to throw Shields in Game 1 with southpaw Scott Kazmir toeing the rubber in Game 2.

Shields, who was 14-8 with a 3.56 ERA in the regular season, won the first game of the ALDS for the Rays, holding the White Sox to three runs and six hits in 6 1/3 innings.

"Big Game" James went 2-2 against the Red Sox this season, but the righty is 2-4 in eight career starts against them, while pitching to a 5.23 ERA.

Kazmir, on the other hand, has pitched fairly well against the Red Sox over the course of his young career, but struggled against them this season, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in four starts. For his career he is 6-7 against Boston with a 3.62 ERA in 21 starts.

The 24-year-old hurler, who was 12-8 with a 3.49 ERA in the regular season, gave up two runs and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings of his Game 2 win over the White Sox.

Right-hander Matt Garza will likely get the call once again in Game 3. Garza, though, is now winless in his last six starts after absorbing the Rays' lone ALDS loss to the White Sox. He gave up five runs and seven hits in six innings of that one.

Garza has never thrown more than 100 innings in his career and with 190 and change under his belt now, he could be running out of steam.

Tampa will likely hand the ball again to Sonnanstine in Game 4.

EDGE: RED SOX

BULLPEN

A lot was made of Troy Percival being left off the roster for the Rays in the ALDS. He probably won't be on the ALCS roster either, meaning Dan Wheeler will once again serve as the team's closer.

Wheeler gave up a run in his only ALDS appearance, but managed 13 saves while filling in for Percival throughout the season.

The bridge to get to the ninth has been sensational, as right-handers Grant Balfour and Chad Bradford combined with lefties Trever Miller and J.P. Howell to lower the Rays' bullpen ERA nearly three full runs from a year ago.

What was already a great bullpen could be even better thanks to 23-year-old left-hander David Price. The top overall pick in the 2007 draft, Price pitched to a 1.93 ERA in his five games and could be an option late in games.

However, Maddon did not use him in ALDS, but that could change if he needs to get Ortiz out in a big spot.

Boston, meanwhile, got another terrific season from closer Jonathan Papelbon, who picked up 41 saves this season, while pitching to a 2.34 ERA. He has been even better in the postseason over the course of his career, and the ALDS was no different, as he picked up a save and did not give up a run in his five innings of work.

Papelbon has still yet to give up a run in his postseason career, spanning 12 games and 19 2/3 innings.

He will mainly be set up by Justin Masterson from the right-hand side along with Manny Delcarmen, who struggled midway through the season, but seems to have gotten back on track.

Hideki Okajima hasn't been as good in year two as he was in his fine rookie season. He pitched to a 2.61 ERA and will be called upon to get a lefties out in this series.

EDGE: RED SOX

MANAGERS

In his third season with the Rays, Maddon pressed all the right buttons, from his insistence on the team wearing hip Ed Hardy T-shirts, to him joining his club in getting a mohawk. Maddon, who will likely pick up the AL Manager of the Year, has been the perfect leader for this young Rays team and it has showed on the field, where the team won a franchise-high 97 games.

Francona, meanwhile, is in his fifth year as skipper of the Red Sox and has taken the team to the postseason in four of those seasons, winning the World Series twice. The Red Sox are so well disciplined and rarely make a mistake in the field and all that is a credit to Francona.

EDGE: RED SOX

BENCH

Losing Lowell weakens the bench since Kotsay will get the majority of time at first, but Sean Casey will fill his role late in games. Coco Crisp is probably the best defender of all of Boston's outfielders and will see time late in games, spelling either Ellsbury or J.D. Drew.

Alex Cora will back up both Pedroia and shortstop Lowrie, while serving as a late-inning base-running option.

With Crawford's return Eric Hinske has been relegated to bench duty. Hinske belted 20 home runs and drove in 60 RBI, while filling in the outfield and at the corners in the infield.

Ben Zobrist and Willy Aybar will also contribute off the bench for Maddon's crew.

EDGE: RAYS

PROGNOSIS

Before the postseason I picked the Red Sox to come out of the AL. I think I am going to go back on that. I didn't like the way Beckett looked in Game 3 and losing Lowell will be tough, especially since Ortiz, Youkilis and Pedroia did not hit a lick in the first two series. Lester will get his wins, but I am not sold on either Beckett or Matsuzaka. You almost got the feeling that the Angels were defeated before they even took the field against the Red Sox. The Rays are not going to be intimidated. They don't know any better. Crazy as it sounds, since the Rays played before empty seats for the better part of the season, but homefield advantage is going to be huge this series. Boston won just once in its eight visits to the Trop, while Tampa was a paltry 2-7 in Fenway. I am expecting a great series, but Tampa is going to pull it out in the end.

Prediction: RAYS in SEVEN