11/11/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If fans of the Denver Broncos want to watch their team playing football this January, they would be well-advised to temper their enthusiasm over the performance the offense posted in Thursday's 34-30 win over the Cleveland Browns.
Sure, Jay Cutler's 447-yard passing night was impressive, especially given that everyone either in Cleveland Browns Stadium or home watching on TV knew that Denver was going to throw on pretty much every down.
An eye-popping spate of injuries at the running back position claimed yet another victim when promising rookie Ryan Torain was lost for the year with a knee injury suffered at Cleveland, on the same night that Selvin Young re- aggravated his groin injury.
Fullback Peyton Hillis, who just last year was the third tailback option behind Darren McFadden and Felix Jones on the Arkansas roster, was the default choice as the primary tailback for much of the Denver/Cleveland game.
So, it was pretty safe Cutler was going to throw, and throw he did, as the Broncos managed to erase deficits of 23-10 and 30-27 to win for just the second time in six games.
Brandon Marshall (6 receptions, 89 yards, 1 TD) caught the winning touchdown from 11 yards out with 1:14 to play, and running mate Eddie Royal (6 receptions, 164 yards, 1 TD) had another dazzling night that came complete with a 93-yard touchdown grab. Even tight end Tony Scheffler, still hobbled by a groin injury of his own, came down with 92 yards worth of receptions against Cleveland's helpless pass-defending unit.
But again, even though the win helped Denver (5-4) remain one step ahead of the posse in the AFC West, in order to win the division, that style of high- scoring outing is going to have to be the rule, rather than the exception.
Once again, the trip to Cleveland provided very little evidence that this team is getting better defensively.
The Browns' Brady Quinn, making his first career start, sliced and diced the Broncos for 239 yards on 23-of-35 passing with two touchdowns and no turnovers or sacks absorbed.
Mike Shanahan's club had very little clue against tight end Kellen Winslow (10 receptions, 111 yards, 2 TD), and was gashed for 160 yards on the ground on the night.
Cornerback Champ Bailey (groin) has a chance to return to the lineup for this Sunday's trip to Atlanta, but the Broncos weren't a good defensive team with him, and it stands to reason that they won't channel the '75 Steelers or '00 Ravens just because he is back in the lineup.
Which means a team boasting the No. 29 defense in the NFL (389.1 yards per game), ahead of only three teams that are a combined 3-24 (Chiefs, Rams, Lions), is going to have to continue scoring bushels of points to get by.
If they don't, Broncos fans eager for that elusive taste of January football could spend a third straight winter starving for a glimpse of the postseason.
CHARGERS: The Chargers notched their first win since Oct. 12th on Sunday, managing to outlast the one-win Kansas City Chiefs, 20-19, to remain within a game of Denver in the AFC West.
The victory was unimpressive in a myriad of ways, not the least of which was that LaDainian Tomlinson and the running game failed to get untracked once again.
The perennial Pro Bowler rushed 22 times for just 78 yards against a run defense ranked at or near the bottom of the league in just about every meaningful NFL statistical category. It marked the sixth time in nine starts this year that Tomlinson had averaged fewer than four yards per carry, and concern is growing that the 29-year-old is nearing the end of his run as a dominant back.
A toe injury suffered in Week 1 is speculated to be a factor in Tomlinson's regression, but the running back dispelled the notion that his health has hampered his progress this season.
"Physically, I'm fine," said Tomlinson a day after the win. "That's where I am. Mentally, I'm good. We're having our ups and downs this season. Obviously, it can drain you mentally. Mentally, it's hard to act like we're in great shape...I'm as healthy as I've ever been."
Tomlinson's numbers, however, have checked into the infirmary.
At his current pace, Tomlinson will finish the year with 1,118 yards, more than 100 fewer than his previous single-season low of 1,236 from his rookie campaign of 2001.
Over his first seven seasons, Tomlinson averaged a whopping 19.1 touchdowns per season, with his low of 10 coming as a rookie. In 2008, he's scored five times, which puts him on pace for just under nine scores.
Since his touches aren't down drastically from 2007, (23.4 per game last year, 21.9 this season), and health isn't the issue, what could be the problem?
Tomlinson isn't saying, though the injury, the underachieving work of the offensive line and a more pass-focused offensive approach that has seen Philip Rivers rise to the top of many league passing categories are seen as possible culprits.
"I honestly believe certain things stay in-house," said Tomlinson. "There are reasons I'm not willing to talk about it to the media."
CHIEFS: The bad news is that the Chiefs are 1-8.
The worse news is that they're an ailing 1-8, and the biggest hurts are on the side of the ball where Kansas City needs the most help - defense.
Defensive ends Turk McBride (shoulder), Tamba Hali (foot) and Brian Johnston (calf), linebackers Derrick Johnson (hamstring) and Pat Thomas (hamstring), and cornerbacks Brandon Flowers (hamstring) and Patrick Surtain (quadriceps) all look unlikely to play this week when the Chiefs - currently in the throes of a five-game losing streak - play host to the New Orleans Saints and their powerful offense.
In Sunday's loss to the Chargers, cornerbacks David Macklin and Ricardo Colcough played significant minutes despite being signed as street free agents earlier in the week. Elsewhere in the secondary, Maurice Leggett joined fellow rookie cornerback Brandon Carr in the starting lineup.
At linebacker, rookie Weston Dacus and veteran journeyman Rocky Boiman saw major time, and defensive lineman Wallace Gilberry - also signed last week due to injuries - did as well.
With the fresh injuries coming out of Sunday's game, all of the above had better be ready to handle Drew Brees and the Saints attack. Head coach Herm Edwards hinted earlier this week that more roster alterations could be coming.
"Don't get comfortable, we'll have a lot of new Chiefs this week, too," said Edwards on Monday.
"We'll probably be looking at adding a couple new defensive ends and linebackers."
RAIDERS: The Oakland Raiders of the 20-game Lane Kiffin era were not a good team, going 5-15 in those contests, but at least they were a threat to score.
The Silver and Black of the post-Kiffin era are 1-4, and the offense has regressed back to the days of Art Shell's second stint, when the team rarely troubled the scoreboard.
In Sunday's 17-6 home loss to the Carolina Panthers, the Raiders failed to score a touchdown for the second consecutive game, and have now scored a total of just 35 points in their five games under interim head coach Tom Cable.
Andrew Walter, subbing for the injured JaMarcus Russell, completed just 14- of-32 passes for 132 yards and two interceptions in his first start since 2006, before yielding to an ankle injury and prodigal son Marques Tuiasosopo in the late going.
Tuiasosopo was just 1-of-2 for four yards in the team's third straight defeat.
Afterwards, it was revealed that Cable has stripped offensive coordinator Greg Knapp of play-calling duties, and will be calling the plays himself for the rest of the season.
"I've got to manufacture some ways to score," said Cable on Monday. "I like the players we got. Are we getting them in the best position to do it? That's really what I've been looking at."
Russell is questionable to return this week as the team heads to Miami to face the Dolphins, and first-round running back Darren McFadden could also be in the lineup after missing three games due to turf toe. In addition, Cable could replace underachieving Kwame Harris and Cornell Green at the tackle spots.
The Raiders will travel to Miami ranked last in the league in scoring offense (12.6 points per game), passing offense (139.2 yards per game), touchdowns (9), rushing touchdowns (3), third-down percentage (22.4), and are tied for last in the NFL in passing TDs (6).
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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